2026 Oscar Nominations Predictions and Analysis

With Oscar nominations being announced on January 22, Moviefone offers predictions and analysis on who will earn nominations at the 98th Academy Awards.

(Left) Leonardo Di Caprio as Bob Ferguson in 'One Battle After Another.' A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Photo Credit: Photo Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures. (Left Center) Jessie Buckley stars as Agnes in director Chloé Zhao’s 'Hamnet', a Focus Features release. Credit: Agata Grzybowska / © 2025 FOCUS FEATURES LLC. (Center Right) Timothée Chalamet in ‘Marty Supreme’. Photo: A24. (Right) Michael B. Jordan as Smoke in Warner Bros. Pictures’ 'Sinners,' a Warner Bros. Pictures release. Photo Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures. Copyright: © 2025 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Now that the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes have been handed out, the official Oscar race is about to begin!

It will start on January 22nd when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announce the Oscar nominees, with the 98th Oscars Ceremony scheduled for March 15th.

At this point, we do have a confirmed frontrunner in the Best Picture race with 'One Battle After Another', but don't count out 'Hamnet' or 'Sinners' just yet.

While directors Paul Thomas Anders, Ryan Coogler, and Chloé Zhao are locks for Best Director nominations, the other two spots seem wide open with Josh Safdie and Guillermo del Toro fighting off foreign film directors Joachim Trier, Kleber Mendonça Filho, and Jafar Panahi for nominations.

In the Best Actor race, Timothée Chalamet seems to be the frontrunner, but will have some competition from Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan and especially Wagner Moura, who recently won a Golden Globe. However, the academy might as well hand the Best Actress Oscar to Jessie Buckley right now, as she is about as solid a lock to win as you can have.

The Academy Awards will air live March 15th on ABC and Hulu.

The supporting categories are much more wide open, with Amy Madigan and Teyana Taylor facing off in the Best Supporting Actress category, and it could be anyone's win in the Best Supporting Actor category between 'One Battle's Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro, Stellan Skarsgård, Jacob Elordi and Paul Mescal, who should all likely receive nominations.

Moviefone is making its Oscar nomination predictions for the major categories including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, ahead of the nominee announcements on January 22nd.

Let's begin!

BEST PICTURE

Leonardo Di Caprio as Bob Ferguson in 'One Battle After Another.' A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Photo Credit: Photo Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures.

Nominee Predictions:

In The Mix:

BEST DIRECTOR

(L to R) Leonardo Di Caprio and Director/Writer/Producer Paul Thomas Anderson on the set of 'One Battle After Another.' A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Photo Credit: Merrick Morton.